Az éghajlat változása- bizonyosságok és bizonytalanságok

Sudden and exponential population growth has occurred over the past few decades; consequently per capita use of energy and air pollution has intensified. Is this increasing and intensified human presence on the planet responsible for a warming in global temperatures of 0.6-0.8 degrees Celsius over the past 150 years? Is the increasing pollution and the consequent greenhouse effect to be blamed for climate change? Has there been an increase in extreme weather conditions? Or is this perception due merely to faster telecommunications and more sensational reporting in a globalised world? Is it possible to model and forecast the climate? The lecture reviews the causes and chances of a rapid climate change and presents some potential global and regional climate scenarios for the 21st century. Based on climate models, the global mean temperature will increase by 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100. This expected warming trend is unprecedented. The biggest temperature change will occur at high latitudes, whilst the least in the tropical ocean. Based on model calculations, changes in precipitation are expected to vary much more both spatially and temporally.